Why AI is Overrated - with Neil deGrasse Tyson

Neil deGrasse Tyson, a renowned science communicator, engages in a unique game where he must remain silent while the host answers various science questions. This segment highlights the general public's approach to scientific concepts, often relying on reassembled words from questions without deep understanding, leading to answers comparable to an eighth-grader who did not complete their homework. This interaction sets the stage for a broader discussion on the importance of clear science communication in an age rife with misinformation.

Neil deGrasse Tyson is widely recognized as the most famous scientist globally, not necessarily for being the best scientist but for his exceptional ability to communicate complex scientific ideas. In the current landscape, where misinformation proliferates through platforms like infinite scrolls and social media, effective science communication has become more crucial than scientific discovery itself. Tyson’s role extends beyond mere explanation; he actively defends science's vital place in civic life against attacks on scientific institutions and the spread of pseudoscientific beliefs, making his efforts essential for scientific literacy.

Neil deGrasse Tyson recalls several 'checkpoints' that signaled his growing fame. One early indicator was discovering online chat rooms where people debated and argued over his statements and their meanings, rather than simply emailing him directly. This shift, where he became the subject of public discourse, marked a significant change. However, the true threshold of his fame was reached when he appeared on the cover of Highlights magazine and Sports Illustrated for Kids, solidifying his status as a public figure.

Becoming the subject of other people's arguments and conversations was a key realization for Neil. He notes that people could have simply emailed him to clarify his statements but chose to debate amongst themselves, indicating a new level of public engagement with his work.

Neil deGrasse Tyson manages his fame by grounding himself in his identity as a scientist, an aspiration he held long before achieving public recognition. His scientific foundation, centered on observing and analyzing the world through the laws of physics, enables him to critically evaluate claims and assertions. This scientific literacy is a powerful tool, empowering individuals to discern objective truth from misinformation. Tyson emphasizes that the human mind is highly susceptible to misinterpreting objective truths, a phenomenon celebrated in optical illusion books, yet often overlooked in daily life, especially when external factors like mind-altering chemicals are introduced, which he asserts do not bring one closer to objective reality.

The human mind is highly susceptible to misinterpreting an objective truth that is right in front of you. This is celebrated with optical illusion books, but it's weird when something as simple as a line drawing can confound your understanding of what is real.

During the discussion, an interesting digression occurs regarding typeface and kerning, illustrating how subtle design elements can be easily overlooked. Neil shares the fact that the same font family is used for Saturday Night Live and 7-Eleven, where the 'N' in 'Night' and '11' is lowercase while other letters are uppercase. This attention to detail, akin to recognizing the hidden arrow in the FedEx logo's negative space, underscores how easily the human mind can misinterpret or miss objective details.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) fundamentally differs from Artificial Intelligence (AI). While AI, exemplified by tools like ChatGPT and Groq 3, refers to computers performing specific tasks better, faster, and cheaper than humans—such as summarizing documents or writing essays—AGI represents a level of intelligence that can learn anything autonomously and be self-motivated. Unlike task-oriented AI, AGI functions with general intelligence akin to the human brain, capable of analyzing new situations and determining how to contribute, making it a complete, adaptable intelligence rather than a specialized tool.

The distinction between AI and AGI is crucial. AI systems are designed for specific tasks, like summarizing documents or generating text. They excel within their programmed parameters but lack broader understanding or self-motivation. AGI, on the other hand, possesses the capacity for general intelligence, similar to human cognitive abilities. It can comprehend, learn, and apply knowledge across diverse domains without explicit programming for each task, enabling it to adapt and solve problems in novel situations.

Neil deGrasse Tyson expresses little concern about the immediate impact of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) on humanity, primarily because he believes it is not yet

in the offing.

He argues that humans inherently desire technology that is useful and practical for specific tasks, such as automated coffee makers or self-driving cars, rather than a generalized intelligence that can perform everything. He suggests that if AGI were to develop, humans would likely opt for specialized tools that address particular needs, retaining control over how technology serves them. His perspective suggests a practical approach to technological integration, prioritizing utility over the pursuit of an all-encompassing artificial intellect.

Neil deGrasse Tyson clarifies that not all leading tech figures express terrifying concerns about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI); rather, those who do are often amplified for clickbait. The vast majority of tech professionals, particularly within major computer companies, view AI as a transformative force, akin to the computer's impact in the 20th century. While computers have become so integrated into daily life that their singular importance is often overlooked, Tyson envisions a future where AI similarly blends into our existence. Examples include electric cars making faster decisions or automatic braking systems, which, though not typically labeled as AI, demonstrate machine-driven decision-making, illustrating AI's subtle yet pervasive presence.

AI will become so much a part of our lives, it already is. If you drive an electric car, it's making decisions for you faster than you. Even if it's not an electric car, automatic braking if someone walks in front of the thing. You don't call that AI, but somebody something made that decision for you.

The computer is arguably the single most important invention of the 20th century, completely transforming every aspect of modern life. Its ubiquitous integration means its profound impact is often taken for granted. Similarly, AI is expected to become an inseparable part of society, with its presence woven into various technologies, often without explicit recognition. This deep integration means AI's future will be less about terrifying, standalone entities and more about seamlessly enhancing our daily experiences, just as the computer has done.

Human beings often possess a blind spot when it comes to perceiving exponential growth, tending to view change as linear. Neil deGrasse Tyson, who dedicates a chapter in one of his books to this phenomenon, emphasizes that since the Industrial Revolution, humanity has been living in an exponentially changing world, even if it feels linear on a daily basis due to occupying tiny segments of a larger scale of change. He illustrates this with a compelling example: in 1905 New York City, Fifth Avenue was dominated by horsedrawn carriages, but just 10 years later, in 1915, automobiles had almost entirely replaced them, showcasing a dramatic exponential shift. Similarly, air travel, which began with only a few people airborne a century ago, now sees millions flying at any given moment. Despite these historical examples, Tyson remains unconcerned about the exponential growth of AGI, believing it will integrate similarly without causing societal upheaval.

Exponential growth can be seen in rapid technological shifts. The transition from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles within a mere 10 years in early 20th-century New York is a prime example, where entire supporting industries vanished as new ones emerged. Another illustration is the transformation of air travel, evolving from just a few airborne individuals a century ago to millions at any given moment today. These swift, pervasive changes demonstrate humanity's continuous experience with exponential shifts, even if they are often perceived as linear.

The idea that AI will eliminate white-collar jobs is met with a pragmatic view. Just as the shift from horses to cars led to the collapse of old industries but the rise of new ones (e.g., gas stations, auto repair, car factories), AI is expected to spur new opportunities. Neil references the exponential growth of computer-related advertisements in phone books from the 1970s to the 1980s as an example of entire new industries emerging. He challenges individuals to be creative and find work that AI cannot do, suggesting that while jobs may change, new industries and roles will inevitably be created, rather than leading to mass unemployment.

Neil deGrasse Tyson asserts that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could be a net positive for humanity, but he draws a clear distinction between scientific discovery and its subsequent application. He uses nuclear power as an example: the scientific discovery of E=MC² in 1905 was brilliant, but its weaponization stemmed from countries' inability to coexist peacefully. He argues that while bad actors could gain access to AGI with potentially lower barriers to entry than building nuclear weapons, establishing guardrails and checkpoints is essential. Drawing an analogy from science fiction author Ray Bradbury, Tyson suggests that dystopian narratives (like "Terminator") serve as warnings, guiding humanity to avoid undesirable futures. He acknowledges the risks of job displacement, particularly in white-collar sectors, but holds an optimistic view that society will adapt by fostering uniquely human creative industries that AGI cannot replicate, such as advanced podcasting, which currently struggles with AI-generated content due to its lack of true originality.

Ray Bradbury told me of a time when a woman came up to him and says, 'Why do you write these stories of such apocalyptic futures? Is this where you think civilization is headed?' And he replied, 'No, I write those stories so you know to avoid them.'

To stay ahead of AI, individuals must continuously innovate in ways that AI cannot access. Since AI's knowledge is limited to existing internet data, it cannot replicate or predict human creativity that has not yet been expressed. This means that true human innovation, the ability to invent something entirely new or to create in a style never before seen, remains beyond AI's current capabilities. By consistently pushing creative boundaries and developing original concepts, humans can maintain a unique edge in the evolving landscape of technology.

Neil deGrasse Tyson defines himself as an "optimist realist," a combination of optimism and pragmatism. He acknowledges the bright side of developments but always grounds them with a reality check. He illustrates this with the classic "half empty or half full" glass analogy: if water is being added, it's half full; if water is being removed, it's half empty. The state of the glass depends on the active process, the rate of change. If found on a table, it's half empty if it's been consumed, or if it's evaporating, that indicates a process of becoming less, leading to mineral deposits at the bottom.

AI is expected to significantly advance medical sciences, particularly in areas previously beyond human reach due to limitations in computing power or analytical capacity. One key area is protein folding, where understanding the myriad shapes proteins can take is crucial for their function and for developing effective medications. With high-performance computing and AI, the process of identifying optimal protein shapes becomes localized and precise, allowing for targeted drug development. Tyson highlights the profound impact of scientific advancements on life expectancy, noting that in cave-dwelling times, half of all people died before age 30. By 1840, this increased to 35, but modern medicine has dramatically extended life spans, demonstrating that science, not just organic living, is paramount for health and longevity. He expresses great anticipation for the positive advances AI will bring, believing they will consistently outweigh potential negatives.

Supercomputing, especially with the exponential growth in computing power witnessed over Neil deGrasse Tyson's lifetime, is revolutionizing scientific fields like cosmology. Traditionally, simulating complex systems like galaxies with hundreds of billions of stars was impossible due to the intricate gravitational interactions of each star. Early simulations had to drastically reduce the number of stars, akin to inaccurate political polling. However, advancements now allow for more precise modeling, constantly pushing the boundaries of what computers can achieve. A prime example is the upcoming Vera Rubin telescope, which will not just take photos but a continuous movie of the night sky, generating vast amounts of data to detect dynamic phenomena—like moving asteroids—that would be impossible for humans to process manually. This data-driven approach highlights the essential role of supercomputing in expanding our understanding of the universe.

Despite the advancements in scientific data and understanding, Neil deGrasse Tyson notes that astrology continues to thrive, particularly among those seeking external explanations for life's complexities. He points out that astrological events, such as Mercury in retrograde, occur multiple times a year, providing frequent opportunities for people to blame the universe for their bad decisions rather than taking personal responsibility. While acknowledging that astrology can be entertaining and people are free to engage with it, he strongly advises against using it for decisions impacting health, wealth, or security, as such reliance will invariably lead to negative outcomes.

Donald Trump's administration saw proposals to significantly cut funding for medical research institutions, leading to substantial grant losses for organizations like John Hopkins and Columbia University, alongside the deportation of academics on valid visas and investigations into DEI policies. This broad assault on academia has caused widespread concern among academics and intellectuals, including Neil deGrasse Tyson. He questions whether Trump's voters fully anticipated these consequences, pointing out that vital programs like Medicare and Social Security, which underpin societal health and security, are also affected. Tyson believes that people will eventually experience the negative ramifications of these decisions, much like the consequences of not vaccinating against preventable diseases, emphasizing that such choices inevitably lead to public health crises that could have been avoided.

The concept of science and vaccines being "victims of their own success" is highlighted. When diseases are eradicated through vaccination, people question the necessity of vaccines, akin to someone asking why a person uses dandruff shampoo when they don't have dandruff. The absence of the problem is precisely because of the preventative measure. Similarly, questioning the need for space exploration when satellite-derived images of hurricanes are readily available demonstrates a lack of understanding about the integral role of space science in daily life.

Science and vaccines are victims of their own success. It's like saying, 'Why are you getting vaccinated when there are no communicable diseases out there?' That's why there's no communicable diseases.

When addressing criticisms of academia, particularly the claims of bureaucratic bloat and the negative perception of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies, Neil deGrasse Tyson finds the arguments against DEI to be peculiar. He observes an underlying assumption that non-white, non-male individuals are inherently less qualified for positions. He cites instances, like a four-star black general being replaced by an objectively less qualified white male, as an odd outcome that contradicts the stated aim of improving quality. Tyson questions why such decisions, which seemingly prioritize race or gender over objective qualifications, are not critically analyzed by those who advocate for cutting DEI initiatives, suggesting a disconnect between their stated values and observed actions in practice.

Neil deGrasse Tyson emphasizes that there's a critical lack of understanding regarding the conduit between academic research and its impact on daily life. Academic institutions conduct foundational research on subjects that may not offer immediate or obvious financial benefits but are pursued by experts deeply committed to their fields. While commercial applications may emerge later, the initial drive is pure inquiry, unconstrained by profit-and-loss sheets. Unlike corporate R&D, academia faces no such limits on what can be researched, allowing for discoveries that might not yield an immediate return on investment but are invaluable. He highlights the example of his college physics professor, who, by studying nuclei in space, discovered magnetic resonance—a new physical phenomenon—which later became the foundational principle for the MRI machine, a life-saving medical imaging technology, despite the physicist having no direct interest in medicine. This demonstrates the inadvertent positive consequences for humanity when research is pursued for its own sake within academia.

The perception that scientific discoveries are slowing down, limited by the precision of instruments, is a recurring theme throughout history, often arising from being on an exponential growth curve. Neil deGrasse Tyson explains that no matter where one stands on this curve, it always appears that most great inventions happened recently, creating a false sense that past progress was minimal. He refutes the idea that science has figured out 'most things,' recalling a similar sentiment a century ago, just before the transformative discoveries of relativity and quantum physics. Today, humanity quantifies its ignorance: while 5% of the universe is understood through known physics, chemistry, and biology, the remaining 95% consists of dark matter and dark energy—measurable but unknown. This vast unknown signifies an ongoing frontier, promising profound insights into the universe's workings, from the origins of life (e.g., how organic molecules formed self-replicating life) to the search for extraterrestrial biosystems, ensuring science remains an endless frontier.

Despite incredible engineering breakthroughs in robotics, with stunning demonstrations from companies like Boston Dynamics showcasing robots doing backflips and opening doors, the general public often wonders why these advancements haven't translated into everyday helpers like robot butlers. Neil deGrasse Tyson challenges this perception, arguing that the concept of a "robot" is often too narrowly defined. He suggests that many existing technologies already function as robots by performing tasks better than humans. For instance, a self-driving car is the robot, not a butler driving a car. Similarly, a coffee machine is a robot that makes coffee. He implies that while the Jetsons' Rosie the Maid is still a fantasy for household chores like laundry folding or dishwashing, many technologies already automate tasks, and the remaining frustrations often stem from a desire for even greater automation beyond what's currently integrated into homes.

Kim Kardashian's commercial where she gets into her flying car because it's the future and of course they have flying cars, but they didn't figure out that maybe the car is the robot. A robot doesn't have to look like doesn't have to have legs or arms or a head or eyes. A robot just has to be something that does the task better than anybody or anything.

In a rapid-fire session, Neil deGrasse Tyson shares his consistent thought when using a telescope alone at night: he wishes to be abducted by aliens. This fantasy stems from his scientific nature, where the unknown is not terrifying but rather seductive. He explains that a scientist cannot fear the unknown; instead, it is what draws them in. Regarding the resurgence of astrology among young people, Tyson observes that while young children are generally not interested, interest often sparks when their social lives become complicated in middle and high school. In such times of perceived lack of control, people seek something to blame. He acknowledges that astrology can be entertaining, but strongly advises against using it for decisions impacting health, wealth, or security, as such reliance will invariably lead to negative outcomes. Finally, if everyone on Earth could instantly understand one scientific concept, Tyson would choose that "the universe is objectively knowable," a concept that removes most opinions from the discussion and promotes a factual understanding of reality.