Ep. 513 - Post-mortem: Season Takeaways

This post-mortem analysis of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season delves into various aspects of strategy, player selection, and lessons learned. The episode begins with a discussion about the FPL Cup, which concluded in an unexpected tie between two long-time players, Bedstey Blake and Baxi Lad, both of whom will receive a kit as a prize. The hosts also announce mug winners for the top eight participants in the cup, extending gratitude to their Patreon patrons for their continuous support. The conversation then transitions into tactical takeaways from the season, emphasizing the importance of objective player evaluation, the optimal use of chips like the bench boost in Gameweek 1, and the pitfalls of herd mentality in FPL decisions. They explore specific player performances, including their frustrating experiences with key assets like Mohamed Salah ("Mo") and Erling Haaland, and discuss the potential of undervalued players for the upcoming season, such as new Manchester United recruits and consistent performers like Jarrod Bowen. The hosts also touch on the unreliable nature of goalkeepers for bonus points and the benefits of a settled squad, highlighting the strategic advantages of "set-and-forget" players who consistently play 90 minutes. The discussion concludes with a forward-looking perspective on potential bounce-back candidates and the significance of identifying reliable defensive options from mid-table teams.

FPL Cup Resolution

The FPL Cup this season concluded in an unprecedented tie, with Bedstey Blake and Baxi Lad sharing the victory. Despite having different teams, a series of unusual auto-subs and last-minute point shifts resulted in both managers finishing with identical total scores. The hosts decided that, given the unique circumstances, both players would receive a kit as a prize, acknowledging their long-standing participation and commitment to the game. This outcome underscored the unpredictable nature of FPL, where even highly calculated strategies can be impacted by unforeseen events.

You both get a kit, I think they should both get a kit too. I’m really happy that you were there too. That’s not even a question. Deciding every other round by the team name feels fun and okay and it’s whatever, but the finals come on. No, no, they can’t be doing that.

Additionally, the top eight participants in the cup, along with the May mug winners, were announced and will be receiving commemorative mugs. The hosts extended their appreciation to their Patreon patrons, whose support is vital for keeping the podcast operational.

Learning from Player Evaluation

A significant takeaway from the season revolved around the hosts' struggle with objective player evaluation. They identified a tendency to become "tilted" by early-season underperformance, leading them to prematurely dismiss players who later became significant FPL assets. This "Richarlison rule," as they termed it, refers to instances where a player, initially deemed a flop due to poor early returns, later proves to be a valuable pick when given more time or a change in circumstances. For example, Eberechi Eze was cited as a player they both dropped after a series of bad performances or injuries, only for him to perform exceptionally well later in the season. Similarly, Enzo was an example where early blanks led to a negative perception, despite his eventual strong showing as a $5.0 million asset. Strand Larsen also fell into this category, as he was ignored later in the season despite a significant increase in his performance, particularly after Boulaye Dia's suspension.

The hosts emphasized the need for a more objective record-keeping system to track players beyond just their immediate point totals. This would involve analyzing underlying metrics and considering the process behind player selections, rather than solely focusing on outcomes. They acknowledged the difficulty of re-evaluating players after selling them, especially in the latter third of the season when transfer decisions often prioritize "double gameweek" players with more immediate fixture advantages. However, they stressed the importance of having an open mind to reintegrating previously discarded players, recognizing that form and circumstances can change.

Gameweek 1 Bench Boost Strategy

The discussion heavily favored deploying the bench boost chip in Gameweek 1. The hosts argued that this strategy is the most effective way to utilize an otherwise "useless" chip. The primary advantages highlighted include the ability to easily build a strong starting XI without compromising bench players' starting potential, and the psychological relief of divesting oneself of the chip early in the season. They refuted common pessimistic arguments, such as low team value in Gameweek 1, by pointing out that recent FPL seasons have offered more budget flexibility, making it less crucial to have a $110 million team value from the outset. Furthermore, they dismissed the notion that waiting for double gameweeks is superior, as cheap, "shitty" players selected for a bench boost in a double gameweek often yield minimal returns.

The hosts also underscored the "sliding doors" effect, where every transfer decision opens up new possibilities. They suggested that the bench boost in Gameweek 1 allows managers to commit fully to an initial strong team, often followed by an early wildcard in Gameweek 2 or 3. This approach treats the Gameweek 1 bench boost almost like a "free hit," enabling immediate reallocation of funds and avoidance of "dead money" sitting on the bench for weeks. They also criticized the common mistake of spending valuable transfers on bench players for a later bench boost, which cannibalizes team value that could be used on starting players. The overwhelming evidence, they contended, supports the Gameweek 1 bench boost as the correct and most effective chip usage strategy.

Impact of Social Media and "Gut Feelings"

A recurring theme was the struggle to "follow one's gut" when making FPL decisions, often swayed by external influences from social media, other FPL content creators, and community discussions. The host admitted to being "inundated" with information, constantly seeing different perspectives and ideas, which can lead to deviating from initial instincts. This often results in a feeling of regret and "rage and despair" when choices made against their gut feelings ultimately fail.

The decision tree for FPL choices was laid out as follows:

• Following Gut + Success: Euphoria and a sense of genius.
• Following Gut + Failure: No regret, an opportunity to re-examine the process.
• Going Against Gut + Success: Good outcome, but lacks the feeling of a personal triumph.
• Going Against Gut + Failure: The worst feeling, leading to rage and despair, and a "tailspin."

The hosts stressed that the differences in projected FPL outcomes between their gut feeling and a popular opinion are often marginal (e.g., 4-5% better), highlighting that sticking to one's initial conviction, even if it doesn't always lead to higher points, leads to a more enjoyable and less stressful FPL experience. They advocated for self-accountability and taking time away from the constant FPL chatter to solidify personal decisions before external influences can dilute them.

Goalkeeper Strategy: The $4.5 million Rule

Regarding goalkeepers, a definitive "golden rule" emerged: never spend more than $4.5 million on a goalkeeper. The hosts argued vehemently against investing heavily in this position, describing it as "stupid and bad and dumb and bad." They cited the example of Aaron Ramsdale, who despite a strong season, failed to accumulate significantly more points than cheaper alternatives. The consensus was that goalkeepers, regardless of their price, often return similar point totals, making higher investments wasteful.

Do not allow me to spend more than $4.5 million on a GK. I need you to be my like fucking sponsor or something, like I cannot do that anymore again, ever. It’s just so stupid. It’s so stupid and bad and dumb and bad to spend more than $4.5 million on a goalkeeper. You can have two of them that are $4.5 million, it’s okay.

Their own experiences, even when getting "more keeper points" with a more expensive option, showed that it made "meaningless" difference to their overall rank. This emphasized that points from keepers are negligible compared to those from outfield players, and that allocating more funds to the rest of the squad is always a superior strategy. They even jested about some of the rationale behind selecting more expensive keepers, such as relying on a perceived increase in bonus points, which rarely materializes consistently.

Mohammed Salah and Erling Haaland Dilemma

The decision to sell Mohamed Salah and hold onto Erling Haaland for too long was a low point for many FPL managers, including the hosts. They acknowledged that Salah's difficult fixtures and the start of the Champions League at Gameweek 6 were valid reasons for managers to transfer him out. However, they pointed out Salah's historical trend of fading in the second half of the season, particularly around Ramadan, due to increased match load and reduced defensive duties under the new manager, which saw him play a more attacking role. The hosts emphasized that despite perceived lower output later in the season, Salah consistently delivers high points. They questioned why, despite this recurring pattern, managers often fail to sell him during these periods, hoping he will "come good."

On the other hand, Holland's underlying numbers remained elite even when his goals dried up, making it difficult to justify selling him. The hosts reflected on how other conservative managers made the switch from Holland to Salah around Gameweek 10, despite Holland's strong data. They were unsure of why this "tidal wave of inevitability" occurred, but recognized that joining the collective movement, even if the individual data didn't fully support it, was often the correct FPL play. The lesson derived was the struggle between trusting underlying data and recognizing when a mass exodus or influx of a player on the market signals an impending shift that one should follow, regardless of personal statistical analysis.

Four and Five Million Pound Defenders

The discussion highlighted the increasing importance of $4.0-4.5 million defenders in FPL. With defenses generally performing worse across the league, and prices not always adjusting accordingly, these budget options are becoming increasingly valuable. The hosts pointed out that consistent starters at this price point, especially from mid-table teams without European commitments, offer excellent value. Unlike higher-priced defenders, who might face unpredictable rotation due to European competitions or tough fixtures, these more affordable options often play 90 minutes consistently.

One specific example discussed was Saúl Ñíguez, who showed consistent returns towards the end of the season under a new manager. Despite West Ham's low number of overall clean sheets, Saúl's attacking output made him a surprisingly good pick at a $4.5 million price point, suggesting he could be an undervalued asset for the upcoming season. While the initial investment in these players might seem less exciting, their consistent minutes and occasional attacking returns provide a valuable foundation for a stable squad, freeing up funds for premium attackers.

Post-Hype and Bounce-Back Candidates

The hosts identified several "post-hype" and "bounce-back" candidates for the upcoming season:

• Phil Foden: Despite a disappointing season, Foden is expected to have a significant price drop. With a healthy season and potentially more consistent starts, he is seen as a strong candidate to revisit his previous elite FPL form.
• Jean-Philippe Mateta: After a challenging season involving injuries and pre-season commitments (Olympics), Mateta found his form towards the end of the last campaign. The hosts believe he is an undervalued forward who, when fit and consistently playing in a fluid system, could offer excellent differential value.
• Martin Ødegaard: Despite finishing with relatively low goal and assist tallies, Ødegaard's underlying numbers suggest he had an "unlucky" season. With a full summer off and potential tactical adjustments, he is anticipated to have a price reduction and return to his previous high-scoring form, especially if he gets to push further up the pitch.
• Louisa Diaz: Despite concerns about minutes and rotation due to Liverpool's depth, Díaz managed to secure almost 200 points last season. His ability to score even when not playing full 90 minutes suggests he is an "underappreciated pick," although managers would need to be strategic about his inclusion in their squad around international breaks or demanding fixture runs.
• Jarrod Bowen: Consistently underpriced, Bowen is seen as a "set-and-forget" player who reliably delivers points regardless of West Ham's opponent. His consistent minutes and ability to pop up with returns make him an essential FPL asset, often overlooked due to a lack of "sexiness."

The conversation around these players highlights the need to look beyond immediate past performance and consider factors like role changes, fitness, managerial influence, and price adjustments when identifying future FPL targets.

The Importance of "Nailed" Players and Banking Transfers

A crucial strategic insight from the season review was the immense value of having "nailed" (guaranteed to start and play 90 minutes) players in one's squad. This approach allows managers to "bank transfers" more frequently, leading to greater flexibility and responsiveness throughout the season. When a team is primarily composed of reliable, consistent performers, managers are not forced into reactive transfers due to injuries, benchings, or poor form. Instead, they can proactively use their free transfers to target "in-form" players or exploit favorable fixture runs. This contrasts sharply with an approach that prioritizes "sexy" but rotation-prone players, which often leaves managers "paycheck to paycheck" in terms of transfers, constantly battling fires rather than seizing opportunities.

The hosts lamented instances where they adopted a more "passive" approach to transfers, leading to missed opportunities. They argued that while rolling transfers is beneficial, it should be a consequence of a well-constructed, stable squad rather than a rigid adherence to avoiding transfers. The ability to accrue multiple free transfers allows for more impactful moves, such as bringing in a key player without taking a points hit, or making multiple changes to capitalize on a double gameweek, rather than just plugging holes in the team. They used the analogy of "no barcodes" (no risk of non-starting players) for bench players in the Gameweek 1 bench boost scenario, extending this principle to the entire squad to ensure maximum playing time and minimize transfer headaches.

Takeaways

1. Objective Player Evaluation: Do not write off players prematurely based on early-season underperformance. Implement a system to objectively track underlying metrics and reassess players later in the season, as form and circumstances can change significantly.
2. Gameweek 1 Bench Boost: Employ the bench boost in Gameweek 1 to maximize its utility. This allows for a strong initial squad and frees up the chip early, avoiding the pitfalls of waiting for potentially low-value double gameweeks later in the season.
3. Trust Your Gut: Develop and stick to your own FPL decision-making process. Resist the urge to be overly influenced by social media and external opinions, as going against your intuition, especially when it fails, leads to significant FPL frustration.
4. Goalkeeper Value: Limit goalkeeper spending to $4.5 million. Higher investments in this position rarely provide a significant points advantage and are better allocated to outfield players.
5. Prioritize "Nailed" Players: Build a core squad of players who are consistently guaranteed 90 minutes. This strategy allows managers to bank free transfers, enabling more proactive and impactful moves throughout the season rather than constantly reacting to squad issues.
6. Identify Post-Hype and Bounce-Back Candidates: Look for players who had a disappointing season but have a strong track record, potential for a price drop, or a favorable change in circumstances (e.g., new manager, returning from injury). These can be undervalued assets for the upcoming season.
7. Beware of Mid-Table Teams without Europe Focus on identifying budget defenders and in-form attackers from mid-table teams not involved in European competitions, as their consistent minutes and easier schedules can offer excellent value.

References

• Fantasy Premier League strategy
• Fantasy Premier League chip strategy
• Mohamed Salah FPL performance history
• Erling Haaland FPL stats
• FPL underpriced players